Instran.id – As the dust settles on Eid homecoming 2025, one thing is clear: the season was defined less by the feared chaos and more by surprising calm on many major routes. While early projections warned of massive crowds, the actual outcome—based on traveler testimonies and toll data—tells a different story.
Quiet Highways, Unused Capacity
Numerous testimonials from travelers on D-2 and D-1 described smooth traffic along the Trans-Java Toll Road, both toward and from East Java. Vehicles glided through areas historically known for bottlenecks. The toll road data backs these anecdotes. According to PT Jasa Marga (Persero), the combined vehicle count from key toll gates—Ciawi 1, Cikampek Utama 1, Kalihurip Utama 1, and Cikupa—fell by nearly 41,000 vehicles from 2024 to 2025. Although D-3 still saw a spike (rising from 231,511 vehicles in 2024 to 255,027 in 2025), the broader travel window showed decline.
Instead, earlier departures were more popular in 2025. On D-10 and D-9, the Trans-Java toll road saw significant increases—D-10 alone rose from 93,568 vehicles in 2024 to 161,893 in 2025. This suggests it was not the work-from-anywhere (WFA) policy that drove smoother travel but rather an earlier start to the holiday.
Mudik travel remained dominated by private vehicles. In 2024, about 37% used private cars and 22% motorcycles. Public transport options included trains (12%) and buses (10-11%). In 2025, the Ministry introduced incentives—such as a 20% toll discount on 17 toll roads—but the uptake of public services remained modest. Government-backed free travel programs only covered about 100,000 travelers (CNN Indonesia), a small fraction of the projected volume.
At Merak Port, the gateway to Sumatra, data from PT ASDP (Persero) also showed a dip in four-wheeled vehicles, from 225,637 in 2024 to 225,400 in 2025. However, passenger numbers rose slightly, from 859,521 to 885,828. Despite this, ferry operators expressed disappointment as expectations for high-volume profits were not met.
The Missed Signals Behind the Numbers
The government had prepared extensively—perhaps excessively—for the 2025 homecoming. A survey from the Transportation Ministry’s Policy Agency, in collaboration with Litbang Kompas, projected 146.48 million travelers. This survey triggered widespread preparations, including a 16-day ban on three-axle trucks.
However, the ground reality reflected a different picture. A key early warning—ignored at the planning stage—was the tightening of public budgets. Civil servants had faced months of limited income sources, including cuts in travel and bonus allocations. Many young ASN chose not to return home, prioritizing debt repayment. Older citizens were deterred by warnings of extreme weather. In the private sector, mass layoffs, muted hotel activity, and uncertainty meant many employees chose financial caution over celebration.
Reports of widespread layoffs, expensive domestic flights, and fiscal tightening under government’s austerity measures contributed to a subdued festive season. Some travelers even opted to transit via Malaysia to reduce costs. Social factors also played a role: YouGov found that 37% of Indonesians did not plan to travel, with another 18% undecided, suggesting a growing trend toward celebrating virtually or locally.
Had the government factored in socioeconomic conditions and evaluated the 2024 experience, it could have scaled back preparations. A shorter truck ban could have preserved freight continuity and protected truck drivers’ earnings during a season they traditionally count on for additional income.
Merak Port: Policy Errors Repeated
The Merak Port policy echoed the missteps of the 2024 Christmas–New Year season. Passenger flows were light, and vessels sailed at only 30% capacity. Meanwhile, trucks were diverted to BBJ and Ciwandan ports, causing congestion. On March 25, BBJ experienced a 1.2 km truck queue, while Merak remained nearly empty.
This misalignment—successful for travelers but harmful for ferry operators—was a result of top-down policymaking that lacked grassroots feedback. As seen repeatedly, such disconnects end up harming both economic activity and stakeholder trust.
Learning from Chunyun: Toward Context-Sensitive Reform
China’s Chunyun—known for managing the world’s largest human migration—offers useful lessons. Through public awareness campaigns, ride-hailing discounts, and off-peak incentives, China has helped travelers spread out their journeys. Indonesia has begun to apply similar methods, such as toll and bus fare discounts.
Public campaigns—on radio, social media, and TV—could encourage staggered departures and alternative routes. Promoting flexibility and smarter travel choices would not only reduce congestion but foster a culture of better planning.
Indonesia must also acknowledge structural limitations. Its fragmented ticketing and inter-agency coordination need reform. A phased roadmap could begin with pilot programs—like installing traffic sensors—and lead to more integrated national transport systems over time. The broader goal is to shape a more informed and flexible travel culture.
Looking Forward: An Opportunity for Smarter Mobility
Even if Eid Homecoming 2025 did not turn out to be the logistical nightmare that many had feared, that is still a significant lesson. We need to be able to identify planning blind spots and transform them as possibilities by finding room for reflection instead of disruption. The heavy reliance on conventional toll road strategies—like one-way traffic and counterflows—might have been effective in the past, but moving forward, they will need to be complemented with broader, more adaptive approaches. China’s Chunyun period offers insights on how demand management tools, multi-modal coordination, and real-time information systems combine to create more adaptable mobility plans.
Despite limitations, 2025’s mudik showed glimmers of hope. While congestion was less severe, this could reflect not only fewer travelers but also better planning in some corridors. The relative smoothness presents an opportunity to rethink how the country handles mass mobility.
It is now up to public authorities to turn these lessons into long-term reforms that support safety and system resilience in addition to managing demand. Mudik’s transformation from a logistical burden to a paradigm for people-centered transport policy may prove to be an outstanding achievement for Indonesia’s transport governance in the years to come.
After all, the coming years—2026, 2027, and even 2029—will see Lebaran falling close to the New Year holiday. This overlap presents both opportunity and challenge. How we prepare now will shape not only how we move, but how well we care for the millions who make that journey home.
Disclaimer: This article is a loosely translated and adapted reflection based on Ki Darmaningtyas’ original piece published on INSTRAN (“Anti-Klimak Persiapan Angkutan Mudik Lebaran 2025”), and draws additional inspiration from the book Dinamika Penyelenggaraan Angkutan Mudik Lebaran (ITB Library Catalog). The views expressed here aim to contextualize the original insights for broader policy reflection.